Making Sense: In Brief
The week ahead for markets and the economy
Monday, March 31, 2025
Blake: Last week markets saw the latest PCE inflation data and continued to process the evolving policy outlook, which appears to increasingly be driving market activity.
This week is packed full of important economic and policy developments, many of which have potential to be very important for financial markets.
First, on Wednesday the White House will release its long-awaited report on so-called reciprocal tariffs. News reports have swung back and forth on the size and severity of these potential tariffs, but the actual decision is yet to be seen.
New tariff policies have been stricter than the market consensus expected a couple months ago, and Wednesday's announcement may give clarity on the extent to which the administration is willing to disrupt the status quo to pursue its policy objectives. Although this story may dominate the financial news for much of this week, there's a lot going on behind the scenes.
Throughout the week, we'll see several very important labor market data releases. Headlining the list is Friday's employment report, which will show changes in the unemployment rate, net job growth and wages for March.
On Tuesday, the labor department will also release its job openings data for February. This release might seem stale on arrival, but we'll be watching to see if any labor market strain was showing early in the data.
On Thursday, a private company called Challenger, Gray & Christmas will release their estimate of the number of job cuts in March. Last month, their estimate spiked, and this shifted the market narrative around the labor market to be somewhat more apprehensive.
Aside from the labor market, we'll also see the monthly ISM manufacturing and services indexes on Tuesday and Thursday this week. We follow these surveys closely for a pulse check of sorts on higher-frequency economic activity.
So things to watch in this busy week ahead. One, the White House's tariff announcement on Wednesday. Two, the March employment report on Friday. Three, job openings data on Tuesday. Four, layoffs data on Thursday. And five, the ISM manufacturing and services indexes on Tuesday and Thursday.
Authors
Brent Ciliano CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Brent.Ciliano@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2650
Phillip Neuhart | SVP, Director of Market & Economic Research
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Phillip.Neuhart@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2403
Blake Taylor | VP, Market & Economic Research Analyst
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Blake.Taylor@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-7964
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