Making Sense: In Brief
The week ahead for markets and the economy
Monday, November 25, 2024
Phil: Good morning, and Happy Thanksgiving. Thank you for giving us the opportunity to help you navigate today's market and economic trends.
Last week was quieter in bond and equity markets as investors have appeared to move past some of the initial price swings following the Election Day.
Turning to the week ahead, markets will be watching Wednesday's personal consumption expenditures report, where we will see the latest data on household income spending, as well as October's PCE inflation data. Forecasters expect income and spending rose at another healthy clip in October at 0.3% and 0.4% respectively.
Keep in mind that these are nominal metrics, and inflation has been running at roughly the same pace recently. Forecasters expect poor PCE inflation data—one of the Fed's most closely watched series—to rise by another 0.3% month on month, bringing the yearly pace back up to 2.8%. It's becoming more difficult to argue that inflation is making further progress heading back to 2%.
In the weeks ahead of the Fed's December 18th meeting, investors will be dialed in to what this above-target inflation means for the path of interest rates. Also on Wednesday, the government will release its second estimate of third quarter GDP. In the first estimate last month, GDP came in at an above-trend pace of 2.8%. GDP has beaten expectations all year, contributing to an increasingly bullish environment.
On Tuesday, we will see house price data for September. Somewhat more inventory has been coming to market, but mortgage rates remain high. Will house prices continue to rise?
So things to watch this week. One, personal income and spending data. Two, the second estimate of third quarter GDP. And three, house price data. Happy Thanksgiving.
Authors
Brent Ciliano CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Brent.Ciliano@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2650
Phillip Neuhart | SVP, Director of Market & Economic Research
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Phillip.Neuhart@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2403
Blake Taylor | VP, Market & Economic Research Analyst
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Blake.Taylor@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-7964
Important Disclosures
This material is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an offer, specific investment strategy, recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or insurance product, and should not be construed as legal, tax or accounting advice. Please consult with your legal or tax advisor regarding the particular facts and circumstances of your situation prior to making any financial decision. While we believe that the information presented is from reliable sources, we do not represent, warrant or guarantee that it is accurate or complete.
Your investments in securities and insurance products and services are not insured by the FDIC or any other federal government agency and may lose value.  They are not deposits or other obligations of, or guaranteed by any bank or bank affiliate and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amounts invested.
About the Entities, Brands and Services Offered: First Citizens Wealth™ (FCW) is a marketing brand of First Citizens BancShares, Inc., a bank holding company. The following affiliates of First Citizens BancShares are the entities through which FCW products are offered. Brokerage products and services are offered through First Citizens Investor Services, Inc. ("FCIS"), a registered broker-dealer, Member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services are offered through FCIS, First Citizens Asset Management, Inc. and SVB Wealth LLC, all SEC-registered investment advisors. Certain brokerage and advisory products and services may not be available from all investment professionals, in all jurisdictions or to all investors. Insurance products and services are offered through FCIS, a licensed insurance agency. Banking, lending, trust products and services, and certain insurance products and services are offered by First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company, Member FDIC, and an Equal Housing Lender, and SVB, a division of First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company. icon: sys-ehl
For more information about FCIS, FCAM or SVBW and its investment professionals, go to:
FirstCitizens.com/Wealth/Disclosures
SVB.com/Private-Bank/Disclosures/Form-ADV
©2024 First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company. All rights reserved. Silicon Valley Bank, a division of First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company, Member FDIC. First Citizens Wealth is a trademark of First Citizens Bancshares, Inc.
