Making Sense: In Brief
The week ahead for markets and the economy
Monday, March 24, 2025
Phil: Last week, investors closely watched the Federal Open Market Committee meeting along with additional statements from the new administration.
Turning to the week ahead, several important data releases will be worth watching. On Friday, February's personal income and spending report is released. Economists expect both spending and income to increase, but the more closely watched metric will be the PCE deflator, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
The core deflator, which excludes the impact of food and energy, is expected to post a 2.7% year-on-year gain—well above the Fed's 2% target. As we were reminded last week, the Fed is walking a tightrope between higher-than-target inflation and potentially slowing economic growth.
On Tuesday, the focus will be consumer confidence and housing. The Conference Board's consumer confidence measure is expected to soften in line with the recent deterioration of the University of Michigan measure.
The S&P Case-Shiller measure of home prices has continued to post gains even as the inventory of homes and days on the market has risen. We will be interested to see if that changes in Tuesday's report.
And finally on Tuesday, February new home sales data is forecast to rebound slightly after declining sharply in January.
So items to watch this week. One, personal income and spending. Two, consumer confidence. Three, housing.
Authors
Brent Ciliano CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Brent.Ciliano@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2650
Phillip Neuhart | SVP, Director of Market & Economic Research
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Phillip.Neuhart@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2403
Blake Taylor | VP, Market & Economic Research Analyst
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Blake.Taylor@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-7964
Important Disclosures
This material is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an offer, specific investment strategy, recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or insurance product, and should not be construed as legal, tax or accounting advice. Please consult with your legal or tax advisor regarding the particular facts and circumstances of your situation prior to making any financial decision. While we believe that the information presented is from reliable sources, we do not represent, warrant or guarantee that it is accurate or complete.
Your investments in securities and insurance products and services are not insured by the FDIC or any other federal government agency and may lose value.  They are not deposits or other obligations of, or guaranteed by any bank or bank affiliate and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amounts invested.
About the Entities, Brands and Services Offered: First Citizens Wealth™ (FCW) is a marketing brand of First Citizens BancShares, Inc., a bank holding company. The following affiliates of First Citizens BancShares are the entities through which FCW products are offered. Brokerage products and services are offered through First Citizens Investor Services, Inc. ("FCIS"), a registered broker-dealer, Member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services are offered through FCIS, First Citizens Asset Management, Inc. and SVB Wealth LLC, all SEC-registered investment advisors. Certain brokerage and advisory products and services may not be available from all investment professionals, in all jurisdictions or to all investors. Insurance products and services are offered through FCIS, a licensed insurance agency. Banking, lending, trust products and services, and certain insurance products and services are offered by First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company, Member FDIC, and an Equal Housing Lender, and SVB, a division of First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company. icon: sys-ehl
FirstCitizens.com/Wealth/Disclosures
