Making Sense: In Brief
The week ahead for markets and the economy
Monday, May 12, 2025
Phil: Last week, markets digested a somewhat uneventful Federal Open Market Committee meeting, along with the latest tariff headlines.
Turning to the week ahead, the most notable economic release will be Tuesday's April Consumer Price Index report. The consensus expects headline inflation to pace 2.4% year over year, while core inflation—which excludes the impact of food and energy—is expected to post a 2.8% gain. Both would remain above the Fed's 2% inflation goal.
April CPI data might be too early to expect any major impact from tariffs, but investors will be keenly watching for any early indication of trade conflict impacting consumer prices.
Also on the inflation front, the Producer Price Index for April is released on Thursday. While not as closely watched as CPI, the PPI can give an indication of underlying inflation at the producer level and can sometimes lead future changes in consumer inflation.
April retail sales data also comes out on Thursday. Consumer sentiment has fallen sharply in recent months, but so far consumer spending has remained resilient. Does the April sales data show any deterioration?
Finally, any tariff news, especially around potential trade deals will remain an area of intense focus for investors.
So items to watch this week. One, CPI. Two, PPI. Three, retail sales. Four, trade news.
Authors
Brent Ciliano CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Brent.Ciliano@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2650
Phillip Neuhart | SVP, Director of Market & Economic Research
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Phillip.Neuhart@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2403
Blake Taylor | VP, Market & Economic Research Analyst
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Blake.Taylor@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-7964
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