Market Outlook

Making sense of the markets

Brent Ciliano, First Citizens Chief Investment Officer, and Phillip Neuhart, First Citizens Director of Market and Economic Research, provide timely insights and in-depth commentaries on the issues impacting the economy and the markets.

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Making Sense: In Brief video

Making Sense: In Brief

The week ahead for markets and the economy

Monday, June 23, 2025

Phil: Last week, markets digested news flow out of the Middle East and the Federal Reserve's decision to keep the overnight rate unchanged.

In the week ahead, investors will remain focused on headlines, whether that be news on the Israel-Iran conflict or updates on potential US trade deals—not to mention tax legislation working its way through Congress and a number of Fed policymaker's speeches.

In the hard data, investors will be closely watching Friday's May personal income and spending report. Both income and spending are expected to grow modestly. Importantly, this report contains the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE deflator. And in last week's updated projections, Fed policymakers revised up their inflation forecasts for this year, signaling greater uncertainty around the inflation outlook.

May's Consumer Price Index was below expectations—does this week's data follow suit? Consensus expects the core PCE deflator to rise 2.6% year over year.

Earlier in the week, the housing market will be in focus. May existing home sales on Monday, the April Case-Shiller home price index on Tuesday and May's new home sales report on Wednesday. Just last week, May housing starts disappointed to the downside. Does this week's data show any signs of improvement?

So items to watch this week. One, geopolitical headlines. Two, personal income and spending. Three, housing data.

Authors

Brent Ciliano CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer

Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank

8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615

Brent.Ciliano@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2650

Phillip Neuhart | SVP, Director of Market & Economic Research

Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank

8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615

Phillip.Neuhart@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2403

Blake Taylor | VP, Market & Economic Research Analyst

Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank

8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615

Blake.Taylor@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-7964

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This material is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an offer, specific investment strategy, recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or insurance product, and should not be construed as legal, tax or accounting advice. Please consult with your legal or tax advisor regarding the particular facts and circumstances of your situation prior to making any financial decision. While we believe that the information presented is from reliable sources, we do not represent, warrant or guarantee that it is accurate or complete.

Your investments in securities and insurance products and services are not insured by the FDIC or any other federal government agency and may lose value.  They are not deposits or other obligations of, or guaranteed by any bank or bank affiliate and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amounts invested.

About the Entities, Brands and Services Offered: First Citizens Wealth™ (FCW) is a marketing brand of First Citizens BancShares, Inc., a bank holding company. The following affiliates of First Citizens BancShares are the entities through which FCW products are offered. Brokerage products and services are offered through First Citizens Investor Services, Inc. ("FCIS"), a registered broker-dealer, Member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services are offered through FCIS, First Citizens Asset Management, Inc. and SVB Wealth LLC, all SEC-registered investment advisors. Certain brokerage and advisory products and services may not be available from all investment professionals, in all jurisdictions or to all investors. Insurance products and services are offered through FCIS, a licensed insurance agency. Banking, lending, trust products and services, and certain insurance products and services are offered by First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company, Member FDIC, and an Equal Housing Lender, and SVB, a division of First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company. icon: sys-ehl

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About the Entities, Brands and Services Offered: First Citizens Wealth™ (FCW) is a marketing brand of First Citizens BancShares, Inc., a bank holding company. The following affiliates of First Citizens BancShares are the entities through which FCW products are offered. Brokerage products and services are offered through First Citizens Investor Services, Inc. ("FCIS"), a registered broker-dealer, Member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services are offered through FCIS, First Citizens Asset Management, Inc. and SVB Wealth LLC, all SEC registered investment advisors. Certain brokerage and advisory products and services may not be available from all investment professionals, in all jurisdictions or to all investors. Insurance products and services are offered through FCIS, a licensed insurance agency. Banking, lending, trust products and services, and certain insurance products and services are offered by First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company, Member FDIC, and an Equal Housing Lender, and SVB, a division of First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company. icon: sys-ehl

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