Market Outlook

Making sense of the markets

Brent Ciliano, First Citizens Chief Investment Officer, and Phillip Neuhart, First Citizens Director of Market and Economic Research, provide timely insights and in-depth commentaries on the issues impacting the economy and the markets.

Making Sense: In Brief video

Making Sense: In Brief

The week ahead for markets and the economy

Monday, May 12, 2025

Phil: Last week, markets digested a somewhat uneventful Federal Open Market Committee meeting, along with the latest tariff headlines.

Turning to the week ahead, the most notable economic release will be Tuesday's April Consumer Price Index report. The consensus expects headline inflation to pace 2.4% year over year, while core inflation—which excludes the impact of food and energy—is expected to post a 2.8% gain. Both would remain above the Fed's 2% inflation goal.

April CPI data might be too early to expect any major impact from tariffs, but investors will be keenly watching for any early indication of trade conflict impacting consumer prices.

Also on the inflation front, the Producer Price Index for April is released on Thursday. While not as closely watched as CPI, the PPI can give an indication of underlying inflation at the producer level and can sometimes lead future changes in consumer inflation.

April retail sales data also comes out on Thursday. Consumer sentiment has fallen sharply in recent months, but so far consumer spending has remained resilient. Does the April sales data show any deterioration?

Finally, any tariff news, especially around potential trade deals will remain an area of intense focus for investors.

So items to watch this week. One, CPI. Two, PPI. Three, retail sales. Four, trade news.

Authors

Brent Ciliano CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer

Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank

8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615

Brent.Ciliano@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2650

Phillip Neuhart | SVP, Director of Market & Economic Research

Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank

8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615

Phillip.Neuhart@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2403

Blake Taylor | VP, Market & Economic Research Analyst

Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank

8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615

Blake.Taylor@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-7964

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This material is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an offer, specific investment strategy, recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or insurance product, and should not be construed as legal, tax or accounting advice. Please consult with your legal or tax advisor regarding the particular facts and circumstances of your situation prior to making any financial decision. While we believe that the information presented is from reliable sources, we do not represent, warrant or guarantee that it is accurate or complete.

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About the Entities, Brands and Services Offered: First Citizens Wealth™ (FCW) is a marketing brand of First Citizens BancShares, Inc., a bank holding company. The following affiliates of First Citizens BancShares are the entities through which FCW products are offered. Brokerage products and services are offered through First Citizens Investor Services, Inc. ("FCIS"), a registered broker-dealer, Member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services are offered through FCIS, First Citizens Asset Management, Inc. and SVB Wealth LLC, all SEC registered investment advisors. Certain brokerage and advisory products and services may not be available from all investment professionals, in all jurisdictions or to all investors. Insurance products and services are offered through FCIS, a licensed insurance agency. Banking, lending, trust products and services, and certain insurance products and services are offered by First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company, Member FDIC, and an Equal Housing Lender, and SVB, a division of First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company. icon: sys-ehl

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