Making Sense: In Brief
The week ahead for markets and the economy
Monday, December 23, 2024
Phil: Good morning, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from all of us here at First Citizens Wealth. Last week, the main event was the December Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. But after signaling to the market that cuts are likely to slow next year—or go on hold altogether—equity and bond markets both sold off significantly.
The Christmas week will be light on the economic and market data front, especially with the government releasing the monthly PCE price data a few days earlier than usual last week, which showed slightly better-than-expected inflation.
Market participants will be watching a few releases on the consumer, the labor market and housing. Later this morning, the latest consumer confidence figures will be released, which forecasters expect to be revised higher. Consumer spending is still looking strong. In last week's third quarter GDP revision, consumer spending was revised up even higher.
On Tuesday, we will see new home sales data for November, where forecasters are looking for a rebound after last month's weak figures. The Fed has been cutting short-term rates, but longer-term rates have risen—keeping mortgage rates high.
Lastly, on Thursday we will see the latest week of jobless claims data.
So items to watch this week. One, consumer confidence data. Two, new home sales. Three, weekly jobless claims.
Authors
Brent Ciliano CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Brent.Ciliano@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2650
Phillip Neuhart | SVP, Director of Market & Economic Research
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Phillip.Neuhart@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2403
Blake Taylor | VP, Market & Economic Research Analyst
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Blake.Taylor@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-7964
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