Making Sense
In Brief | The week ahead for markets and the economy
Fed Policymaker Speeches | House Price Data | Inflation Data| Monday, August 25, 2025
Phil: Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Powell's speech on the economic outlook dominated market attention.
Turning to the week ahead, investors will continue to follow the Fed outlook very closely with equity prices, bond yields and broad financial conditions closely tied to the path policymakers are laying out.
The New York Fed president will give a speech on Monday, and Fed governor Christopher Waller, who dissented from the last Fed decision in favor of a rate cut, will give a speech on Thursday. As markets are looking for any information to move the needle on next month's potential rate cuts, these policymaker comments could move markets.
On Tuesday, we will see monthly house price data for June. Home prices have softened recently, likely due to the higher mortgage rates and elevated inventories, neither of which looks likely to subside any time soon.
Finally, on Friday, we will see the monthly personal income and spending report for July. Personal spending has held up in recent months, including on an inflation-adjusted basis, signaling to us that the economy likely remains intact and resilient.
Forecasters expect this trend continued in July, but also project that PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, crept higher to 2.9%. An upside surprise to this inflation print a full point above the Fed's target would complicate the outlook for rate cuts this year.
So items to watch this week. One, Fed policymaker speeches. Two, house price data. Three, personal income and spending.
Authors
Brent Ciliano CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Brent.Ciliano@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2650
Phillip Neuhart | SVP, Director of Market & Economic Research
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Phillip.Neuhart@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-2403
Blake Taylor | VP, Market & Economic Research Analyst
Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank
8510 Colonnade Center Drive | Raleigh, NC 27615
Blake.Taylor@FirstCitizens.com | 919-716-7964
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